🟢 Status: 19.01.2025 🟢 The stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (17.-19.12.24)
If you have questions? Write a comment in my free Telegram Channel!
The inloopo stock market indicator shows a fundamental analysis of the US stock market (S&P 500 Index) every Sunday. Based on that, various strategies can be implemented, such as a conservative ETF strategy with the inloopo signal service. However, the stock market indicator can also be used for option strategies or futures swing trading.
Look at the performance of the inloopo signal service as an ETF strategy.
🟠 Status: 12.01.2025 🟠 The stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (17.-19.12.24)
If you have questions? Write a comment in my free Telegram Channel.
🟢 Status: 05.01.2025 🟢 The stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (17.-19.12.24)
📈 Mixed start to the year Despite a moderate recovery on Friday, the major US indices were unable to make up for their slight weekly losses. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones each ended the week with a decline of around 0.5 %.
📊 Over 20 % return two years in a row! With an annual gain of 25 %, the S&P 500 achieved a return of over 20 % in 2024 for the second year in a row - the strongest back-to-back result since 1997/1998. However, the rally was very concentrated: seven technology giants accounted for over 53 % of the total gain.
🏆 Tech sectors dominate again Not all sectors were able to benefit from the rally: - Top performers: communications (+40.2%) & technology (+36.6%) - Weakest sector: Materials with a slightly negative result
🛢 Oil prices rise again New concerns about the global oil supply drove the price of US crude oil up by 4 % last week. At USD 74 per barrel, it is at its highest level since mid-October, but almost unchanged from the start of 2024.
💰 A look at the quarterly figures US banks start the reporting season in mid-January. Analysts expect earnings growth of 11.9% for the 4th quarter, which would be the highest increase since Q4/2021.
📅 Like January, like the year? Statistically speaking, January often provides an outlook for the year as a whole: in 71% of cases since 1929, a positive January was followed by a good year on the stock markets - or a weak start to the year was followed by a year of losses.
👀 A look at the labour market The monthly US labour market report is due on Friday. After the economy created 227,000 new jobs in November, it remains to be seen whether growth has remained stable in December.
💡What's next? Volatility remains high, but this is precisely what offers opportunities for active traders. In my premium area, I analyse current setups and trading opportunities for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Index.
📈 Read my detailed US indices analysis in my weekly newsletter from ETFMAXX.com
🟢 Status: 29.12.2024 🟢 The stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (17.-19.12.24)
📆 Weekly review: Christmas spirit on the stock markets? Many private investors are not quite ready to get into the Christmas spirit after volatility increased significantly in the week before Christmas.
Nevertheless, there is generally cause for celebration!
The US indices are clearly up for the year.
S&P 500: approx. +25 %
Nasdaq: approx. +27 %
Dow Jones: approx. +14 %
This means that 2024 is likely to end significantly better than the average annual performance of +8.5 %.
💡 Weekly outlook: End of the year and start of the new year The recent increase in volatility is likely to be a foretaste of 2025. With the new US president taking office in January, the stock markets could remain turbulent. The general conditions for 2025:
Strong economy: solid economic data and a stable labour market are supporting the markets.
US Federal Reserve: The Fed is currently giving no indication of interest rate cuts. Major investors currently expect only one rate cut in 2025 - it remains to be seen whether this will be enough to drive the stock markets further.
Volatile markets offer perfect opportunities for swing traders, and this is exactly what I utilise with my PROMAXX signal service.
Good luck and a healthy start to 2025! Yours, Philipp Kozalla
📈 Read my detailed US indices analysis in my weekly newsletter from ETFMAXX.com
🟢 Status: 22.12.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (17.-19.12.24)
📆 Review of the week: Bumpy week on the markets The stock markets showed strong fluctuations last week: The major US indices lost around 5% at times. Wednesday in particular caused unrest when the Fed meeting caused the volatility index (VIX) to rise by 84% to 28.1. However, the situation eased towards the end of the week - on Friday, buyers entered the market and started a recovery rally that made up for most of the losses. The US indices closed well above their lows for the week.
💡Weekly outlook: Quiet end to the year The last days of 2024 will remain largely quiet. A consumer confidence report awaits us on Monday, followed by data on new home sales and durable goods on Tuesday. The following week will see figures on pending home sales on 30 December and an update on property prices on 31 December.
Despite a slight pause for breath, the upward trend remains intact. Positive impetus from the technology sector in particular should continue to drive the markets in the coming months.
I wish you all a relaxing and reflective Christmas season. Enjoy the time with your loved ones - 2025 is sure to be an exciting year! It starts in January with the inauguration of the new President Donald Trump, who is guaranteed to cause surprises.
Good luck and happy holidays! Yours, Philipp Kozalla
📈 Read my detailed US indices analysis in my weekly newsletter from ETFMAXX.com
🟢 Status: 15.12.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🟢 Spread: no warning
Comment: A correction week in the S&P500 and Dow Jones and new all-time highs in the Nasdaq. This is what a functioning sector rotation looks like in an intact bull market. Money continues to rotate from defensive stocks into growth stocks.
And all this one week before the next US Federal Reserve meeting on 18 December.
What's next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The US reporting season is almost over and only smaller companies are still publishing their quarterly reports.
Important US dates:
18.12.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and meeting
The rally is being driven by the major market participants. The positive impetus from the technology sector is there. This will push the stock markets higher over the next few months.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
🟢 Status: 08.12.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🟢 Spread: no warning
Comment: The S&P500 reaches new all-time highs again. And the Nasdaq can finally follow suit with a clear impulse. Good signs for a long-term continuation of the rally.
What's next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service (https://www.inloopo.com/investment/). Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The US reporting season is almost over and only smaller companies are still publishing their quarterly reports.
Important US dates:
11/12/2024 US inflation data (CPI)
The rally is being driven by the major market participants. The positive impetus from the technology sector is there. This will push the stock markets higher over the next few months.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
🟢 Status: 01.12.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (15. & 19.11.)
Comment: The S&P500 index reaches new all-time highs. However, only on Friday under significantly lower trading volumes and not on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving in the USA.
In the short term, the question is whether the Nasdaq can also reach new all-time highs in this movement. If so, everything is intact. If not, there will be a correction in the first week of December and the continuation of the rally will have to wait.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The US reporting season is almost over and only smaller companies are still publishing their quarterly reports.
Important US dates:
04.12.2024 Speech by FED Chairman Powell
06.12.2024 US labour market data
The rally is being driven by the major market participants. Further positive signs from the technology sector are needed next to drive the sector rotation further. If the Nasdaq is unable to reach new all-time highs, the rally will stall for the time being.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 24.11.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (15. & 19.11.)
Comment: The S&P500 index reaches new all-time highs. This was mainly driven by the strong bank stocks, which almost all reached new all-time highs. Cyclical consumer stocks, above all Tesla, also made significant gains. The sector rotation continues to proceed according to plan.
Next week is a short stock market week, as Thanksgiving is celebrated in the USA on Thursday.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service (https://www.inloopo.com/investment/). Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The US reporting season is almost over.
Important US dates:
26 & 27 November 2024 FOMC Meeting Minutes
27.11.2024 Core PCE inflation data
28 & 29 November 2024 US Thanksgiving holiday
The rally is driven by the major market participants. Next, further positive signs from the technology sector are needed to drive the sector rotation further.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 17.11.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (16.11.)
Comment: The first correction after the US presidential elections was much stronger than I had expected. There was significant selling pressure on Friday and volatility has also risen again. The VIX futures are even showing a slight backwardation. The markets are showing clear uncertainty ahead of the weekend. If we see a bottom on Monday/Tuesday with buying interest, then the rally will continue.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed about how I specifically manage my ETF investments, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The reporting season is still ongoing. The most important date is Wednesday after the market closes:
20/11/2024 Nvidia (after market close)
Important US dates:
21.11.2024 US labour market data
The rally is being driven by the major market participants. Further positive signs from the technology sector are needed next to drive the sector rotation further.
Everyone is watching NVIDIA's quarterly report on Wednesday.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
🟢 Status: 10.11.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: Warning (18.09.-06.11.)
Comment: Trump is the new president of the USA. As expected, this clear decision was received very positively by major investors and all US indices reached new all-time highs. The NASDAQ 100 also finally managed to reach this level, restoring the normal structure of the US market. Risk appetite has increased again.
Volatility is falling again significantly and the spread no longer shows any need for hedging since the election decision.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
The reporting season is still ongoing, but the most important date is the week after next:
20.11.2024 Nvidia (after market close)
Important US dates:
13.11.2024 Inflation data (Core CPI)
14.11.2024 US Federal Reserve unemployment figures
The rally is being driven by the major market participants. Further positive signs from the technology sector are needed next to drive the sector rotation further.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post. 👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
🟢 Status: 03.11.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock exchange traffic light is green.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.09.-01.11.)
Comment: The correction in the S&P500 and Dow Jones continues, leading to a significant increase in volatility ahead of the US presidential elections. And of course no stock index will reach a new all-time high before such an event.
The uncertainty remains and I am curious to see how things will develop after the elections and the subsequent US Federal Reserve meeting.
What will happen next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash. I will start a new ETF leveraged swing trading portfolio within the ETF signal service next week.
The reporting season is still ongoing but is much less important than the political news.
Important US dates:
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
07.11.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Will the new US president prove himself directly with an economic stimulus programme and boost the weakening jobs market? This would spur another end-of-year rally, as the weakening labour market is currently the biggest uncertainty in the US.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 20.10.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.09.-18.10.)
Comment: Last week's market commentary is still relevant. Not much has changed. 😊
Another week with new all-time highs in the S&P500 and Dow Jones. Only the Nasdaq is still lagging behind, trading around 3.5% below its all-time high. This is still unusual, as is the backwardation in VIX futures that has persisted for weeks.
Major market participants are hedging. Will there be major turbulence during/after the US presidential elections?
There are currently only signs of uncertainty.
What will happen next?
If you would like to be informed about how I manage my ETF investments, subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as additional purchase plans or timely exits before a crash.
Important quarterly reports:
- 23.10.2024 Tesla after close of trading
Important US dates:
- 24.10.2024 US labor market data
- 05.11.2024 US presidential elections
- 07.11.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Will there be another correction before the presidential elections? Uncertainty is actually poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 13.10.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.09.-11.10.)
Comment: Another week with new all-time highs in the S&P500 and Dow Jones. Only the Nasdaq is still lagging behind, trading around 3.8% below its all-time high. This is still unusual, as is the backwardation in the VIX futures that has persisted for weeks.
Major market participants are hedging. Will there be major turbulence during/after the US presidential elections?
At the moment there are only signs of uncertainty, but these could just as easily dissipate and the rally will simply continue.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed about how I specifically manage my ETF investments, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. Every Sunday, I will inform you about my current ETF positions as well as buy-back plans or timely exits before a crash.
Important US dates:
17.10.2024 US labor market data
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
Things are likely to remain very volatile until the US presidential election. This uncertainty is actually poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 06.10.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator light is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.-04.10.)
Comment: Double rate cut two weeks ago, then US inflation data close to the 2% target zone and strong labor market data on Friday with a falling unemployment rate and rising hourly wages.
This sent the markets back into rally mode. The S&P500 and Nasdaq ended the trading week in positive territory.
What's next?
In my opinion, the sideways movement in the S&P500 is in the process of breaking upwards. The Nasdaq Index is also showing strength and should reach new all-time highs in the coming weeks.
If you would like to be informed when exactly one of these buying opportunities arises, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and my specific buy plans for my ETF positions.
Important US dates:
10.10.2024 US inflation data (CPI)
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the US presidential election. Because this uncertainty is poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 29.09.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.-27.09.)
Comment: A lot is happening behind the scenes this week. Volatility as measured by the VIX futures is rising significantly, while the DOW Jones and the S&P500 are reaching new all-time highs over the course of the week. Only the Nasdaq continues to lag behind. However, the Nasdaq is seeing strong buying interest from major market participants on the limit side.
This mixed situation makes the short-term outlook somewhat more difficult.
What happens next?
In my opinion, the sideways movement in the S&P500 remains intact and another small setback to the middle of the range may follow. The current uncertainty is due to the US elections at the beginning of November. Nevertheless, interesting buying opportunities will continue to arise until then.
If you would like to be informed when exactly one of these buying opportunities arises, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and my specific buy plans for my ETF positions.
Important US dates:
04.10.2024 US unemployment rate September
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
Things are likely to remain very volatile until the US presidential election. Because this uncertainty is poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 22.09.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
⚪️ Divergence (the indicator has technical problems)
🔴 Spread: Warning (18.-20.09.)
Comment: The US Federal Reserve has cut the key interest rate by 0.5%, taking the financial markets by surprise. This was reflected in the reaction on Wednesday. The positive upward movement followed on Thursday. Nevertheless, I do not yet see a clear upward trend in the S&P500, as the market was unable to close above the previous all-time highs. Only when this is the case do I see medium-term upside potential.
Apparently, the major market participants also see it that way, as the VIX futures have been showing a need for hedging since Wednesday until the US presidential election.
What happens next?
The sideways movement in the S&P500 remains intact. This may continue until the US elections at the beginning of November, despite the surprising interest rate cut, the labor market data will be decisive.
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and my concrete plans for buying my ETF positions.
Important US dates:
26.09.2024 US labor market data
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the US presidential election. Because this uncertainty is poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 15.09.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-13.08.)
Comment: Low US inflation data is driving the indices higher. This is exactly what the Fed had expected until the first rate cut. Inflation is falling to around 2% and the labor market is weakening slightly. Both have now occurred and the first rate cut could come on Wednesday. There is currently a 50% probability that interest rates will be cut by 0.5%. In my view, that would be a clear surprise.
What happens next?
The US indices are currently moving sideways and the inloopo stock market traffic light is changing back and forth. This may continue until the US elections at the beginning of November, depending on the outcome of the interest rate decision and how the labor market develops.
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and my concrete plans for buying my ETF positions.
Important US dates:
18.09.2024 US interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the US presidential election. Because this uncertainty is poison for sustainably rising stock markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🔴 Status: 08.09.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-13.08.)
Comment: As expected, the downward trend continued on Friday. Poor US labor market data sent the US indices sharply lower.
Everything is going as expected in September 2024. 1.5 weeks to go until the US interest rate decision on 18.09.2024.
Further data will be published next week. On this basis, the Fed will probably decide whether to cut interest rates by 0.25% or even 0.5%.
What happens next?
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service (https://www.inloopo.com/investment/). There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and give my detailed entries or exits.
Important US dates:
11.09.2024 US inflation data (CPI)
18.09.2024 US interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the next interest rate decision and the US elections. Both events will bring uncertainty until the decision is made. This is poison for sustainably rising equity markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 01.09.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: is the trend changing to rising?
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-13.08.)
Comment: For the past two weeks, the S&P500 Index has been in a sideways phase approx. 1.5% below the previous all-time highs. This sideways phase shows the indecision of the major market participants. The sector rotation also reflects this uncertainty. The Dow Jones reached new all-time highs last week and the Nasdaq technology index began to correct.
The big money is currently rotating into the safety of the more solid Dow Jones stocks.
What happens next?
There are still 2.5 weeks until the next interest rate decision. Enough time for another slight correction, right?
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions.
Important US dates:
02.09.2024 US holiday (Labor Day)
06.09.2024 US unemployment figures
18.09.2024 US interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the next interest rate decision and the US elections. Both events will bring uncertainty until the decision is made. This is poison for sustainably rising equity markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis Use Google Translate or just check out the Tradingview Screenshots 😉
🟢 Status: 25.08.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock exchange traffic light is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: is the trend changing to rising?
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-13.08.)
Comment: US Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it quite clear at the press conference in Jackson Hole on Friday afternoon: interest rates in the US will fall soon. The only question is when exactly and how much? That still depends on the inflation and labor market data.
From a technical perspective, the recent upward movement in the S&P500 and Dow Jones was very strong. Only the Nasdaq technology index is lagging somewhat behind, as it has not yet been able to overcome the price level of 23 July.
What's next?
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions.
Important US dates:
30.08.2024 Core PCI inflation data
18.09.2024 Interest Rate Decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the next interest rate decision and the US elections. Both events will bring uncertainty until the decision is made. This is poison for sustainably rising equity markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
🟠 Status: 18.08.2024 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: is the trend changing to rising?
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-13.08.)
Comment: The US labor market is surprisingly strong and US inflation is lower than expected. Both are driving the stock markets significantly higher. Is this now the reason for a V-shaped recovery straight to new all-time highs? Not in my view, because next week there could be renewed speculation as to whether the Fed will cut interest rates at all in September.
And this uncertainty would send the stock markets back into well-deserved correction mode.
What happens next?
If you want to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions.
Important US dates:
22.08.2024 US unemployment figures
18.09.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the next interest rate decision and the US elections. Both events will bring uncertainty until the decision is made. This is poison for sustainably rising equity markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
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🔴 Status: 11.08.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (05.-09.08.)
Comment: Fears of an economic slump returned on Monday. Driven by liquidity outflows from Japan. This is because the Japanese central bank is considering raising the historically low key interest rate further ahead of schedule.
The US stock markets stabilized surprisingly over the course of the week. Nevertheless, the fears have not disappeared. The VIX futures are still in backwardation and indicate a need for hedging on the part of major market participants.
What happens next?
Things could get very uncomfortable again in the coming week as inflation data and important labor market data are published. Both are the most important indicators for the FED as to how high the next interest rate cut will be.
If you want to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions.
Important US dates:
13.08.2024 US inflation data producers (PPI)
14.08.2024 US consumer inflation data (CPI)
15.08.2024 US unemployment figures
18.09.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential elections
It is likely to remain very volatile until the next interest rate decision and the US elections. Both events will bring uncertainty until the decision is made. This is poison for rising equity markets.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
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🔴 Status: 04.08.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: downwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: Has the Fed stifled the US economy and labor market with its high interest rates? Will the next Fed meeting on September 19 come too late to prevent the US economy from crashing?
This fear is currently driving investors and causing share prices to fall, especially after Friday's significantly higher unemployment figures.
The US reporting season is drawing to a close. With the exception of Nvidia, all major US companies have presented their quarterly figures. Here is an overview:
Tesla: disappointed
Google: disappointed
Microsoft: disappointed
Meta (Facebook): surprised
Apple: was okay
Amazon: disappointed
Nvidia: on 28.08.2024
What's next?
The outlook for the next reporting season is good. This is because investor expectations are now somewhat more muted again and therefore easier to exceed.
In the short term, it's a case of wait and see. Fear is spreading and this could also cause the US indices to correct by another 5%.
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service (https://www.inloopo.com/investment/). There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions.
Important US dates: - 08.08.2024 US unemployment figures - 05.11.2024 US presidential elections
The trend is pointing downwards and fear is spreading. Traders and investors should seize the opportunity and lock in profits.
I remain bullish in the long term until the end of the year. The new US president will definitely prove himself with an economic stimulus package.
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🟠 Status: 28.07.2024 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: The US indices continued their correction last week. Just in time for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will take place on Wednesday, 31.07.2024. If the Fed holds out the prospect of the first interest rate cut, the summer correction could already be over. If the Fed remains hawkish in the coming months, the correction will continue.
The US reporting season will reach its peak next week. In the coming week, 173 US companies will present their quarterly reports. The highlights are
Tuesday after the close of trading: Microsoft and AMD
Wednesday after close of trading: Meta (Facebook)
Thursday after the close: Apple
What happens now?
In the short term, there is a good opportunity to buy more. With the prospect of a continuation of the trend. If this does not materialize, the position can be closed with a small loss before the summer correction.
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and in special cases, such as now, also during the week when I see a buying or selling opportunity.
Most important US dates:
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential election
Is the upward trend still intact? We'll see in the coming week.
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🟢 Status: 21.07.2024 🟢 The inloopo market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: The next 1-2 weeks will be very exciting. Either the upward trend in the US indices S&P500 and Nasdaq can continue, or there will be a summer correction comparable to last year (August - October).
The US reporting season begins. Next week, 135 US stocks will present their quarterly reports. The highlights are on Tuesday after the close of trading: Google, Tesla and Visa.
But what happens next?
As long as the trend is intact, corrections remain buying opportunities. We will see next week or the week after whether there will be a change in trend.
If you would like to be informed when a bottom or trend change has been reached, then subscribe to my ETF signal service. There I will inform you every Sunday about my current ETF positions and in special cases like now also during the week when I see a buying opportunity.
Most important US dates:
26.07.2024 US producer inflation data (Core PCE)
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
05.11.2024 US presidential election
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 14.07.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: Last Thursday, the inflation data (CPI) and the labor market data brought movement to the US indices. Technology stocks sold off sharply and money flowed into Dow Jones and Russell 2000 Index stocks. As a result, both reached new all-time highs on the futures markets, confirming the upward trend.
Only the Nasdaq Index was unable to post a new all-time high on Friday.
But what happens now?
The Nasdaq is normally regarded as a kind of leading indicator for the other indices. So you could say that if the Nasdaq Index reaches new all-time highs in the coming trading week, the rally will simply continue. If, on the other hand, the Nasdaq Index is unable to reach new all-time highs in the coming trading week, this indicates a small summer correction.
From today's perspective, this summer correction would then still be a buying opportunity for a continuation of the rally until at least the end of the year.
Most important US dates:
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 07.07.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: New all-time highs in the S&P500 and Nasdaq. Only the Dow Jones remains below its all-time highs. But here too there are strong signs in trading volume and open interest. This is a sign that the Dow Jones will also reach new all-time highs in the coming weeks and months.
The rally continues and so far there is no sign of weakness for a summer correction.
The next US inflation data (CPI) will be published on July 11 and the FED's next interest rate decision is due on July 31.
Most important US dates:
11.07.2024 CPI inflation data
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 30.06.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: An unspectacular week lies behind us. The S&P500 formed 3 outside and 1 inside bar within 5 trading days. All short-term buyers and sellers were stopped out at the daily highs and lows. This is a sign that large market participants are at work and procuring liquidity.
In the short term, this gives rise to the possibility of a correction to the 5450-point area in the S&P500 future in order to then initiate an upward trend continuation. In the big picture, only short-term weakness can be seen and long-term investors can continue to use corrections to build up positions.
The next US inflation data (CPI) will be published on July 11 and the next interest rate decision by the Fed is due on July 31.
Most important US dates:
11.07.2024 CPI inflation data
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 23.06.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: In recent weeks, technology stocks have been the clear upward price drivers. On Thursday and Friday last week, a correction set in for technology stocks, which was also reflected in the S&P500 and Nasdaq Index. In contrast, the Dow Jones Index closed with two positive days on Thursday and Friday. A clear sign of sector rotation.
Now that the correction in the S&P500 and Nasdaq has come to an end, there are once again buying opportunities to build up positions.
The next US inflation data (CPI) will be published on July 11 and the next interest rate decision by the Fed is due on July 31. The upward trend should remain intact until these important dates.
Most important US dates:
28.06.2024 PCE inflation data
11.07.2024 CPI inflation data
31.07.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 16.06.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: The US indices S&P500 and Nasdaq continued their rally and reached new all-time highs. Driven by strong quarterly figures from Broadcom, which ended the week up 23%. Apple and Nvidia also made strong gains, driving the Nasdaq technology index in particular higher.
Inflation in the US continues to fall, encouraging big investors to pump their money into the market.
Next week there are some meetings where members of the Fed will speak, which could influence the markets in the short term. However, at the moment I think the next important news will be next week's producer inflation data.
Most important US dates: - 28.06.2024 PCE inflation data
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 09.06.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: The US indices S&P500 and Nasdaq continued their rally and reached new all-time highs. Driven by the AI boom and the strong performance of NVIDIA as well as the first interest rate cuts in Canada and the eurozone.
Next week, the US Federal Reserve will follow with an interest rate decision and a meeting, with 97% of market participants not expecting a rate cut in the US. On the same day, CPI inflation data will also be published, which will have a major impact on the Fed's words and decisions. Inflation is expected to remain unchanged from the previous month of April. Will there be a surprise with lower inflation?
Most important US dates:
12.06.2024 CPI inflation data
12.06.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and meeting
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 02.06.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: The S&P500 made its first correction last week after reaching a new all-time high. The NASDAQ is currently the strongest US index and clearly shows the direction. The major investors are continuing to invest in technology stocks, even though interest rates remain high.
There is currently no reason not to be invested.
In today's German webinar, I will go into detail about the current situation and also discuss other US indices and markets such as Gold and Oil.
Most important US dates: - 07.06.2024 US unemployment figures
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 26.05.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: New all-time highs in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ.
There will be no market commentary this week due to illness.
Most important US dates: - 30.05.2024 US unemployment figures - 31.05.2024 Core PCI (US inflation figures)
The upward trend is intact. Corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 19.05.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock exchange traffic light is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: upwards
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: New all-time highs in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. Who would have thought this possible just a few weeks ago?
Inflation (CPI-YoY for April) remains constant at 3.4% and the US indices simply continue to rise to new all-time highs. A sign that big money is continuing to invest. At the same time, volatility is falling to 11.98. The US stock markets are in a bull market.
Tonight (Sunday) Fed Chairman Powell speaks again. I am curious to see whether he will stick to his dovish attitude of the last meetings.
Most important US dates: - 23.05.2024 US unemployment figures
The correction is over. Further corrections can be used to build up positions.
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🟢 Status: 12.05.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator changes to green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways or upwards ?!?
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no more warning
Comment: Is the summer correction already over or is it going one step lower? The stock market indicator is turning green and I am now waiting for an entry signal in the ETF signal service.
Over the last two weeks, negative unemployment figures have been the main reason for rising prices. Inflation data is due next week. These and Fed Chairman Powell's speech will move the markets.
In the week following the interest rate decision, there are again almost daily meetings of Fed members who make their opinions known. This could possibly move the markets more than the unemployment figures on Thursday.
Most important US dates:
14.05.2024 US PPI data
15.05.2024 US CPI inflation data
Is the correction already over? Next week will decide what happens in the coming months. I am currently still waiting for an entry signal for my investments.
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🟠 Status: 04.05.2024 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🔴 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning on 15 & 16.04.
Comment: Is the summer correction already over or is it going one step lower? The stock market traffic light is turning orange again.
Last week's interest rate decision was relatively unspectacular and the poor unemployment figures caused prices to rise. What's on the agenda this week?
The US reporting season is drawing to a close. Last week, the largest companies presented their figures and this week Disney, Uber and AirBnb are in the spotlight alongside 61 other companies.
In the week following the interest rate decision, there are again almost daily meetings of Fed members giving their opinions. This could potentially move the markets more than the unemployment figures on Thursday.
Most important US dates:
09.05.2024 US unemployment figures
The correction is still ongoing. Next week will decide what happens in the coming months. Patience is currently required.
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🔴 Status: 28.04.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: downwards
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning on 15 & 16.04.
Comment: In order to better assess the direction in which the US stock markets are moving, it always helps to look at the big picture. The economic cycle, sector rotation and weekly chart speak a clear language. Overall, we are in an upward trend. In my opinion, the correction that has been underway since the beginning of the second quarter is just a correction like the one that took place in 2023 from August to the end of October. During this period, the S&P500 lost -10 %. The current correction was -6 % last week and has now fallen back to -3.7 %.
Next week will be exciting, as the downward trend should continue on the daily chart. We are in the middle of the US reporting season and the US interest rate decision + outlook is on Wednesday. The US economy is currently super robust, the labor market is strong and inflation is not falling. The first rate cut is currently not expected until September.
A total of 173 companies will present their figures next week.
The heavyweights are:
Tuesday: Eli Lilly, MC Donalds and Coca-Cola (before the market opens) as well as Amazon and AMD (after the market closes)
Wednesday: MasterCard (after market close)
Thursday: Apple (after market close)
Sound risk management is definitely advisable at present in order to have sufficient liquidity to re-enter the market at lower prices. My ETF signal service provides specific information on how I am currently implementing this.
Important US dates:
01.05.2024 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and outlook
The correction is underway. There will soon be medium-term buying opportunities again until the end of the year. In my opinion, a little patience is still required at the moment.
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🔴 Status: 21.04.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: downwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning on 15 & 16.04.
Comment: Geopolitical situation, US reporting season and US interest rates. There is currently a lot of uncertainty in the news. Volatility is jumping and the spread also showed a warning on Monday and Tuesday. But all this comes after the stock market indicator changed from green to red.
The US reporting season is underway. Next week things really get going:
Tuesday: Tesla, Visa (after market close)
Wednesday: Meta (Facebook) (after market close)
Thursday: Microsoft, Google (after market close)
Sound risk management is definitely advisable at the moment in order to have sufficient liquidity to re-enter the market at lower prices. My ETF signal service provides specific information on how I am currently implementing this.
Important US dates:
26.04.2024 PCE price index (inflation data)
The long-awaited correction is underway. There will soon be medium-term buying opportunities again until the end of the year. A little patience is still required.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
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🔴 Status: 14.04.2024 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: downwards
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The reporting season in the US began on Friday with the financial sector. And the major bank JP Morgan clearly missed expectations, although the figures were actually good. JP Morgan closed down more than 6% on Friday, dragging the US indices down with it. The Dow Jones was particularly affected.
Volatility rises significantly, especially on Friday, which indicates that short-term investors are hedging against falling prices.
Sound risk management is definitely advisable at present in order to have sufficient liquidity to re-enter the market when prices fall. My ETF signal service contains specific information on how I am currently implementing this.
In the coming week, 42 companies will present their quarterly figures. Highlights include Goldman Sachs, ASML and Netflix.
Important US dates:
18.04.2024 Unemployment figures
The long-awaited correction begins. There will soon be medium-term buying opportunities again until the end of the year.
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🟠 Status: 07.04.2024 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Was the new all-time high of the S&P500 index on Monday an April Fool's joke? Or a sign that the rally will continue? The stock market traffic light is turning yellow and signaling caution. Risk limitation comes back into focus. In the ETF signal service, I specify the level at which I move my stops and how I manage my ETF position.
But what was the trigger for the price slide on Thursday evening? Basically just the statement by two FED members that US interest rates may only be cut twice this year because inflation is not cooling and the labor market is too strong. The FED would like to see an increase in unemployment figures, as this would be a sign that wage increases are being curbed somewhat.
This has put the big traders in a negative mood and sent the US stock markets plummeting.
Important US dates:
10.04.2024 Consumer Price Index CPI - March inflation figures
11.04.2024 Unemployment figures
The long-awaited correction could begin. There will soon be medium-term buying opportunities again until the end of the year.
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🟢 Status: 31.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: A week without a new all-time high in the S&P500, NASDAQ and Dow Jones, despite the end of the quarter and a small Easter rally. As long as the uptrend remains intact, the party will go on.
I am curious to see how the first week of the second quarter begins. Perhaps this will set the tone for the coming weeks.
Important US dates:
03.04.2024 Speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve (Powell)
I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.
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🟢 Status: 24.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The US Federal Reserve surprises traders and investors and the rally continues.
But what was so surprising? The interest rate has remained the same, hasn't it?
It was said at the meeting that the Fed still expects three interest rate cuts in 2024. Three interest rate cuts are also currently planned for next year, 2025. This makes investors bullish and continues to drive the rally. You can read more about the interest rate forecast in my current Euro-US-Dollar analysis.
This shows once again that future expectations are traded on the stock market and not the current reality.
All major US indices reach new all-time highs.
Important US dates:
28.03.2024 US gross domestic product Q4 (GDP)
29.03.2024 US core PCE index (inflation data)
I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.
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🟢 Status: 17.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: A negative inside bar is forming on the weekly chart of the S&P500 and for the first time in 8 weeks a week without a new all-time high. Is this a sign that the well-deserved correction is imminent? Only the Dow Jones index is making new all-time highs. A sign that the big money is being shifted into interest rate-resistant stocks.
There is a US Federal Reserve meeting next Wednesday. It is highly likely that the direction for the next few weeks will be decided there. Further up or a correction for the time being.
Important US dates:
20.03.2024 FED meeting and interest rate decision
Will the rally take a break from Wednesday/Thursday?
I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.
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🟢 Status: 10.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Another week with new all-time highs in the S&P500 and NASDAQ Index. There are still no signs of weakness in the chart. Last week the rollover into the June contract was completed in the futures market. Trading volumes and open interest remain strong.
The US economy is robust and it is a US presidential election year. This is causing share prices to rise.
Volatility is rising slightly, but is still at a very low level. No sign of weakness.
Important US dates:
12.03.2024 US inflation data (CPI)
When will the rally in the indices take a breather?
I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
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🟢 Status: 03.03.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The upward trend of the US indices simply continues. There is no sign of weakness in the chart and it seems that all short traders had to rotate their positions.
The US economy is looking strong and it is a US presidential election year. This is causing share prices to rise.
The seasonal weakness is being ignored and volatility is falling again significantly.
Important US dates:
06.03.2024 Speech by FED Chairman Powell
07.03.2024 Speech by FED Chairman Powell
When will the rally in the indices take a breather?
I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities until the end of the year.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
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🟢 Status: 24.02.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicatort is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Wohwww, what a bull market, mainly driven by the 7 big US stocks.
Last week Nvidia released hammer numbers, which moved the whole AI sector higher. All US indices hit new all-time highs, yet the NASDAQ showed significant weakness against the Dow Jones and S&P 500. Volatility continues to diverge from price.
Nevertheless, these are all just small signs of weakness. The reporting season is drawing to a close and large investors will probably be looking more closely at the inflation figures and the first interest rate cut in 2024 over the next few weeks. If the interest rate cut does not happen in March and May, there will be another correction as a breather until the end of the year.
What does this mean for us as investors?
Corrections remain buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4,700 point range, this is a very attractive buying level.
Important US dates:
29.02.2024 US PCE price index (inflation)
When will the rally in the indices take a breather? Investors should think about taking profits and have enough cash to build up positions again after the correction. It looks as if the market is currently somewhat overheated.
However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.
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🟢 Status: 18.02.2024 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The US reporting season is drawing to a close. Of the US heavyweights, only Nvidia has not published any figures. These will be published on Wednesday after the close of trading. Last Tuesday's US inflation data led to a brief sell-off and a significant increase in volatility. Will the S&P 500 change its 15-year seasonal trend in the coming week?
The S&P 500 Index has already risen by 4.65% since the beginning of the year and I think there will be attractive entry prices again in March. The DOW Jones and the Nasdaq Index are showing a COT sell signal.
What does this mean for us as investors?
Corrections remain buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4,700 point range, these are very likely to be very attractive buying levels.
Important US quarterly figures: - 21.02-2024 Nvidia (after-hours)
Important US dates: - 19.02.2024 US holiday - 21.02.2024 FED Meeting Minutes
It still smells like a correction. Investors should think about taking profits and have enough cash to rebuild positions after the correction. It looks as if the market is currently somewhat overheated.
However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
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🟢 Status: 11.02.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Technology stocks are pushing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Index to new all-time highs. The upward trend remains intact and the US indices are following the 15-year seasonality.
This reached its high on February 15. I am curious to see whether the indices will continue to follow this curve or whether the rally will simply continue. The S&P 500 Index is already up 4.65 % since the beginning of the year and I think there will be attractive entry prices again in March.
What does this mean for us as investors?
Corrections are still buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4700-point range, these will most likely be very attractive buying levels.
Important US economic data:
13.02.2024 US inflation data (CPI)
My medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious despite new all-time highs in the S&P 500 Index. However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.
📈 Read my more detailed S&P 500 analysis in the latest blog post.
👉 To the S&P 500 analysis
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🟢 Status: 04.02.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Wednesday was the US Federal Reserve meeting with an interest rate outlook, and the head of the central bank linked the decision on when the first rate cut will come to the US economic data. If the US economy and the labor market remain strong over the next few weeks, there will again be no rate cut at the next meeting in March.
This means for the next few weeks. All strong economic data can lead to negative stock market prices, as this means that interest rates will remain at the current level for longer. -> Good news is bad news.
What does this mean for us as investors?
Corrections are buying opportunities. So if the S&P500 corrects again to the 4700 point range, these are most likely attractive buying levels.
The quarterly figures from Meta and Amazon were very positive, and both stocks pushed the S&P500 to new all-time highs on Thursday and Friday.
The only interesting thing is that the NASDAQ technology index has not yet matched these all-time highs.
Important US economic data:
05.02.2024 FED press conference
08.02.2024 Unemployment figures
My medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious despite new all-time highs in the S&P 500 Index. However, I see corrections as medium-term buying opportunities.
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🟢 Status: 28.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The upward trend continues. Nevertheless, a divergence to the trading volume is forming again on Friday. This week will be exciting, as the Fed's interest rate decision is on Wednesday. Interest rates will remain unchanged at the current 96.9%. Much more decisive for the markets is the outlook for the coming months.
The US economy has been very robust in recent weeks. Unemployment figures were lower than expected, GDP in Q4 202023 was significantly better than expected, as were US home sales. I don't think the Fed will want to cut rates in the coming months either. We will see.
The VIX volatility index is not showing any new all-time lows. This also points to slight uncertainty.
The reporting season is underway. This week, 108 US companies are publishing their quarterly figures.
Highlights are:
Tuesday after the close of trading: Microsoft, Alphabet (Google), AMD
Wednesday before the market opens: Mastercard
Thursday after market close: Apple, Amazon, Meta (Facebook)
Important US economic data
31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
Despite new all-time highs, my medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious due to the lack of volume in the S&P 500 Index.
🟢 Status: 21.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The upward trend continues. The major US technology companies are driving the indices to new all-time highs. What a reaction to Thursday's strong unemployment figures. Normally this means that the Fed will not cut interest rates for the time being. This reaction can already be seen in US government bonds and the US dollar. However, major investors are unlikely to see any impact on Apple, Microsoft and the like, as these companies were the main drivers of the US indices last week.
The upward trend in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Index is not confirmed by trading volumes and open interest. Only the NASDAQ confirms the upward trend with volume and open interest.
The VIX volatility index is also not showing any new all-time lows. This also shows slight uncertainty.
The reporting season begins. This week, 73 US companies will publish their quarterly figures. The highlight is likely to be Tesla on Wednesday after the close of trading.
Important US economic data:
25.01.2024 US initial jobless claims
25.01.204 US inflation figures PCE core price index
31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
Despite new all-time highs, my medium-term analysis is somewhat cautious due to the lack of turnover in the S&P 500 Index.
🟠 Status: 14.01.2024 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: neutral
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The US stock markets are closed on Monday for a holiday and a short trading week lies ahead.
The reporting season started last week with the US banking sector. Next week, 23 other medium-sized companies will follow. The real action will then start on January 23.
The US stock markets closed on a positive note this week, but below the all-time high and with lower turnover than in previous weeks. Inflation and labor market data received a mixed reception. For me, this is a sign of uncertainty ahead of the FED meeting at the end of January and there could be further profit-taking in the next 2-3 weeks.
Important US dates:
18.01.2024 US initial jobless claims
31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The sideways phase mentioned last week is developing. If the market falls below 4750 points on a sustained basis, the next target is 4600 points on the downside.
Until the US Federal Reserve meeting, I am more cautious with new investments and am taking profits for the time being. There is a clear discrepancy between the Fed's words and the expected interest rate cuts. If expectations are not met, there could be a major correction.
My medium-term analysis is that a sideways/slightly downward market is forming.
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🟢 Status: 07.01.2024 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: neutral
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The year 2024 begins with a correction on the US stock markets. The first target of 4700 points was almost reached on Friday. However, there was follow-up buying at the close of trading on Friday, which led to a positive divergence again. The coming week will show whether there are signs of a trend reversal.
A look at the COT data shows a mixed picture for the 3 major US indices. In the S&P 500, commercial market participants are clearly long. In the NASDAQ and Dow Jones, on the other hand, they are short. In the Russell 2000, market participants are neutral and are waiting for a signal from the US Federal Reserve as to how monetary policy will proceed in 2024.
2024 is a US presidential election year and historically a positive year for the stock market.
Important US dates in the new year:
11.01.2024 US consumer price index (inflation data)
11.01.2024 US unemployment figures (initial claims)
31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
The sideways phase mentioned last week is developing. If the market falls below 4700 points on a sustained basis, the next support level will be 4600 points.
Until the FED meeting, I am more cautious with new investments and am taking profits for the time being. There is a clear discrepancy between the Fed's words and the expected interest rate cuts. If expectations are not met, there could be a major correction.
My medium-term analysis is still positive.
🟢 Status: 31.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The year 2023 has come to an end and the 3 major US indices have reached a new all-time high. Who would have thought that? After all, the newspapers reported an impending financial crash before the end of 2023. Or is it coming now in 2024? I will discuss this question in detail in my New Year's webinar on January 7.
The fact is that I no longer base my investment decisions on the news. This leads to many wrong decisions. Either profits are not realized and you still hope for a continuation of the upswing or you are invested too late, as probably happened to many investors in 2023. This is exactly why I developed the inloopo stock market traffic light, so that I can make data-based and reproducible decisions. And this year has once again shown that this approach is the right one, as all my accounts are at all-time highs.
Important US dates in the new year: - 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
I think that we will see more of a sideways phase over the next few weeks and that there may be good opportunities to enter the S&P 500 again at around 4700 points. Looking ahead to the next interest rate decision at the end of January, some investors are unsure about what will happen next. Nevertheless, my medium-term outlook for 2024 is very positive. The stock market indicator shows me the way. 😊
Long-term long investors can build up positions in the next correction. Swing traders are still on the lookout for long set-ups. Equity investors and option traders can use sector rotation to look for promising set-ups.
My medium-term analysis is positive.
I wish you all a successful start to 2024. Do your annual analysis of 2023, learn from it and make the right decisions for the new year 2024. 🚀💸
🟢 Status: 24.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Eight positive weeks in a row. What a year-end rally. And the S&P 500 Index also reached new all-time highs last week, albeit only briefly. The NASDAQ and the Dow Jones even closed last week above their 2021/22 highs. But here, too, there are signs of a small, healthy correction or sideways phase.
Most important US dates in the new year: - 31.01.2024 US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
Long-term long investors can build up positions. Swing traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors and option traders can use sector rotation to look for promising setups.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
I wish you all a Merry Christmas. 🎄
🟢 Status: 17.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: It goes up for 7 weeks in a row without a significant correction. Is this the start of a bull market for 2024? At the moment it looks like it. We will see whether the US Federal Reserve disappoints investors' expectations at some point and what happens next. At the moment, the annual rally is underway and the S&P 500 is still the weakest index. The Dow Jones has already climbed significantly to new all-time highs and the NASDAQ also made it last week. All good signs that the S&P 500 will soon follow suit.
Important US dates next week - Thu: 21.12. US gross domestic product (Q3) - Fri: 22.12. PCE core rate price index
Long-term oriented long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
I wish you all a pleasant pre-Christmas period. 🎄
🟢 Status: 10.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The uptrend continues and many short traders had to close their positions again on Friday. In addition, there was a futures rollover, which means that all investors had to close their positions and reopen them in the next contract. This will probably lead to slightly falling prices in the first days of the coming week. As some large investors want to make a favorable rollover and try to push prices down.
Important US dates next week - Tue: 12.12. US consumer prices (inflation data) - Wed: 13.12. US Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision
Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
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🟢 Status: 03.12.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: The uptrend continues and many short traders had to close their positions on Friday. The Dow Jones was the strongest US index last week. Driven by the surprisingly good quarterly figures from Salesforce, the Dow Jones almost reached its all-time high. Only +1.4% is still missing.
The S&P 500 is currently the weakest index, as it is the only index still trading below its 2023 highs.
Important US events next week - The next FED meeting will take place on 13.12. There will again be trend-setting information on US monetary policy for 2024. I assume that there will be no more surprises this year, but you can never be sure.
Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders are still looking for long setups. Equity investors are looking for promising setups with the help of sector rotation.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
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🟢 Status: 26.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Volatility continues to fall and the S&P 500 continues to rise. So far there are no signs of weakness. The NASDAQ is once again ahead of the S&P 500 as the technology index hit new highs for the year last week. This is a good sign that the S&P 500 may also reach new annual highs this year.
Important US events in the coming week - Thursday: US inflation data - A further decline from 3.7 to 3.5 percent is expected.
In my opinion, it currently looks good that this figure will be reached or even undercut. This is because the oil price has fallen significantly in recent weeks, which confirms this scenario.
Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders continue to look for long setups. I am 100% invested in the ETF signal service.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
🟢 Status: 19.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: no warning
Comment: Volatility is falling and falling and the US indices have been unstoppable in the last 3 weeks. This was due to lower than expected inflation figures last week and producer prices were also well below expectations. This has boosted the stock markets, as an interest rate hike this year is therefore almost out of the question.
I currently expect the rally on the US equity market to continue until the end of November with only very minor corrections.
Important US dates next week - Tuesday & Wednesday: FED meeting minutes
Next week has only 3 trading days, as Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving in the US.
Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Swing traders and day traders continue to look for long setups. I am 100% invested in the ETF signal service and entered about 3% cheaper than the last exit. This allows me to outperform the index.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
🟢 Status: 12.11.2023 🟢 My inloopo stock market indicator is green. Indicators:
🟢 COT data (no current data - publication on Monday)
🟢 S&P500 above 52 moving average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: Warning on (19./20./26.10.23)
Comment: A mini-correction on Thursday and a continuation of the trend on Friday. Two outside bars formed one after the other in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. A very rare sight. The year-end rally is in full swing. The market is currently very strong and is being driven by large market participants.
Important US dates next week: - Tuesday: US Consumer Price Index (inflation figures) - Wednesday: Producer Price Index
Long-term long investors can build up or expand positions. Short-term traders then look for long setups. I have placed an entry order in the ETF signal service.
The medium-term analysis is positive.
🟠 Status: 05.11.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Comment: As expected, the FED meeting determined the direction of the US stock markets.
The divergences of recent weeks have dissipated. And with an impulsive upward movement that really picked up speed after the FED meeting on Wednesday.
This is likely to have been the bottom for the time being, as the Fed's outlook for the coming year was more dovish (reluctant to raise interest rates further) than it has been for a long time.
The Q3 reporting season is drawing to a close. Only 57 companies will report next week. The biggest are Gilead Science on Tuesday, Disney on Wednesday and AstraZeneca on Thursday. None of these companies are likely to have a significant impact on the market as a whole.
The view of the stock market indicator is mixed. If the upward trend is confirmed in the coming week, the stock market indicator will turn green.
Long-term long investors can build up or expand their positions. Short-term traders are waiting for confirmation of the bottom formation and are then looking for long set-ups.
The medium-term analysis is brightening. Especially due to the FED's words. I am still waiting for the bottom to be completed. I find promising stocks, for example, by analyzing the sector rotation.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: rising ?!?
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: Warning on (19./20./26.10.23)
🔴 Status: 29.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: divergences as far as the eye can see. For example, volatility fell 2% on a weekly basis, while the S&P 500 Index fell 2.5%. Normally, volatility rises when prices fall.
But is this enough for a bottom and a trend reversal? I think the Federal Reserve will decide on Wednesday where we are headed. Will they continue to consider rate hikes and will the outlook for next year remain "Hawkish"? If so, it will probably go down another notch.
Until this important decision on Wednesday, I see first of all a volatile sideways phase, as the technology index NASDAQ has already demonstrated on Friday.
A look at the COT data shows that the large speculators are net long for the first time since June 2022. Do the large speculators perhaps have more information than we do?
163 more quarterly reports are due in the coming week, with Apple as the heavyweight on Thursday after the market close.
A look at the indicators of the inloopo stock market indicator shows a clear picture: Everything is on red.
Long-term oriented long investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for a bottoming out. Short-term oriented traders can look for short opportunities.
The medium-term analysis remains bearish/falling. A bottom formation is to be awaited.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🔴 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning (10/19/20/26/2013)
🔴 Status: 22.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: Never fight the FED is the saying. The FED remains Hawkish in the wording, i.e. it continues to think about another rate hike and only holds out the prospect of a maximum of two rate cuts next year. The wording rather points to a longer lasting high interest rate level.
This unsettles the U.S. stock markets and causes prices to fall significantly on Thursday and Friday. Also, the spread was in backwardation on Thursday and Friday, indicating a clear need for hedging by major market participants.
The situation remains tense. And until November 1 (next FED meeting), it will be difficult to find a bottom.
Rather, it currently looks as if the S&P 500 Index will once again run into the next support at 4200 points.
On Tuesday after the close of the stock market, Microsoft and Google will publish their quarterly figures. Facebook (Meta) follows on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday.
Long-term oriented long investors should stay on the sidelines and wait for a bottom to form. Short-term oriented traders can look for short opportunities.
The medium-term analysis is bearish/falling again for now.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
🔴 Spread: Warning
🟠 Status: 15.10.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Comment: Bottoming in all 3 US indices is underway. Will the continuation of the uptrend follow next week? Maybe Tesla's quarterly report on Wednesday will show us the way 😉 .
The reporting season is underway and has already started well. Three major U.S. banks exceeded expectations on Friday, but could not stop the price decline. To me, that's fine.
During the week, FED members have expressed the view that there will be no further rate hike at the next US rate decision on 01 November. The probabilities are in favor of this. 93% of investors do not see another rate hike coming.
Only volatility jumped up a bit too much for my taste on Friday.
The medium-term analysis is brightening, indicating a bottoming. The trend continuation to the upside is ahead. If the trend continuation occurs, I will be invested and trade all my strategies more aggressively long.
Indicators:
🟢 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: bottoming / rising ???
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🟠 Status: 08.10.2023 🟠 My inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Comment: What is the difference from the previous week? And why is the inloopo stock market indicator on orange?
Orange means attention for me: An order can be placed in the ETF signal service.
Volatility made a significant jump up on Tuesday, surpassing the previous week's prices. However, it fell back sharply on Friday and was even almost below the level of the beginning of the week. In addition, the S&P 500 Index missed a positive weekly candle by only 4 points. What a rally on Friday on good news and bad news.
The NASDAQ continues to be the strongest U.S. index and again achieved a positive weekly candle and in addition a trend change in the daily chart.
The news situation is upside-down: bad news are good news. Friday clearly showed that.
Next week, inflation figures will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, and on Friday, the new reporting season begins with the major banks JP Morgan, Wells Fargo and Citi Group. This will provide the first glimpse of how robust the U.S. economy really is in 2023.
Medium-term analysis is brightening, but still pointing down in the S&P 500 Index. There are signs of a bottom forming. I have a feeling that a trend reversal will occur next week.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🔴 Status: 01.10.2023 🔴 My inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: The mixed picture is strengthening. The NASDAQ is significantly stronger than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. A positive weekly candle is even forming in the NASDAQ. Seasonality (5,10&15 year) bottoms in the next week and then turns up. We will see if this is the case again this year and the major market participants begin to drive prices higher.
A short-term divergence of the S&P 500 price to volume and open interest is already in place. However, this is much more pronounced in the NASDAQ. My tip: When the rally starts, it will be strongest in the technology indexes. The coming weekend could confirm this!
The sector rotation already shows strength in the energy sector and financials. These are also positive signs for the coming months.
The medium-term analysis is still down, but there are signs of a bottom. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🔴 Status: 24.09.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: The U.S. Federal Reserve leaves interest rates at 5.25%, as expected. However, as expected, this was not the driving force behind the price movements. The decisive factor was the outlook. It is possible that there will be another rate hike this year. And for 2024, too, later and significantly smaller rate cuts are currently expected. This is because the FED expects the U.S. economy to grow much faster than expected. In 2023 over +2% and also for 2024 economic growth is expected to be higher than just a few months ago.
This justifies a relatively stable interest rate level next year and thus no rapid rate cuts.
In the short term, the stock markets are reacting negatively to these statements. But if the U.S. economy is really that robust, this will soon be reflected in rising stock prices again.
It is interesting to note that the NSADAQ index is much stronger than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Both indexes have hit new lows, with the NASDQ so far holding above its August 18, 2023 low.
Are technology stocks the safe haven? Or is this the harbinger of risk-on mode for the year-end rally?
For now, it's wait and see. Capital protection is currently the order of the day, and then invest again at the right time.
The medium-term analysis is currently bearish. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: falling
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: None Warning
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🔴 Status: 17.09.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: Last week was marked by the expiration of futures and options on Friday. This event only occurs four times a year and a range formed in the S&P 500. It was noticeable that although the week ended on a negative note, volatility fell slightly and the large speculators continued to reduce their short positions. In June, they were short over 400,000 contracts and currently they are only around 100,000 contracts. For me, this is a bullish sign for the last months of the year. We just have to wait patiently for the end of the ongoing correction.
Next week Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will hold another press conference and it looks like interest rates will remain unchanged. If this is the case, the wording in the statement will be crucial for the market reaction.
The medium-term analysis is not clear at the moment. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day for now.
Indicators:
🔴 COT data
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟠 Trend: sideways / falling ??
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🟠 Status: 10.09.2023 🟠 The inloopo stock market indicator is orange.
Comment: Now it gets exciting. Will the S&P 500 Index follow the seasonal trend or will the uptrend on a daily basis remain intact? Next week Friday, Sept. 15, 2023, the S&P 500 September futures contract expires and it rolls into the December contract. Thus, for the longer-term outlook, the current September contract no longer matters, as half of the trading volume in the December contract has already taken place on Friday.
If the S&P 500 December contract rises above 4548 points in the coming week, this is a bullish sign. If this does not happen, we will have to wait until the next Fed meeting on 20.09.2023 for a directional decision.
The sector rotation and the comparison of the US indices shows that the NASDAQ index is currently the strongest index. For me, this is a bullish sign for the coming months. Now the only question is the right timing.
The medium-term analysis is not clear at the moment. It is still too early for a year-end rally. Keep calm and wait and see is the order of the day for now.
Indicators:
🔴 COT signal
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🔴 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🟢 Status: 03.09.2023 🟢 The inloopo stock market indicator is green.
Comment: Everything already green again? Was that already the summer correction, which should actually last until early/mid-October?
The coming week will decide it.
Last week showed once again that the stock market is a game of emotions. Today's prices are driven by the long-term outlook. Last week, much worse than expected unemployment figures were reported. The U.S. unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.8%. The S&P 500 index then jumped sharply, making further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve less likely. And this prospect of no further rate hikes was much more important for the long-term economic outlook than a "few" more unemployed.
The inloopo stock market indicator is back on green and I am now waiting for the entry signal in the S&P500 ETF signal service. Next weekend we will know more.
The medium-term analysis is currently positive again, even if the correction was a bit too short. It is still clearly too early for a year-end rally.
Indicators:
🟢 COT signal
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🟢 Trend: rising
🟢 Momentum
🔴 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
🔴 Status: 27.08.2023 🔴 The inloopo stock market indicator is red.
Comment: The summer correction takes a small break and an inside bar forms on the weekly chart in the S&P 500 Index. Volatility is falling and at 15.67 is almost back to levels seen before the correction began at the end of July. Still, it looks to me like we will see lower prices in the coming weeks. The big speculators are slightly increasing their short positions again and the downtrend on a daily basis is valid. Seasonality is also in favor of falling prices.
The medium-term analysis is negative. However, it currently looks like this is just a correction until the start of the year-end rally.
Indicators:
🔴 COT signal
🟢 S&P500 above 52Moving Average
🔴 Trend: downward
🔴 Momentum
🟢 Divergence
⚪️ Spread: No warning
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